How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Robin Singh
Robin Singh

A professional poker player and coach with over a decade of experience in tournaments and cash games.