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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.