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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes journey to the US capital to meet US President Donald Trump. This marks the first in-person encounter between the two leaders after an extended period of escalating strains and sharp rhetoric.

Topics for Talks

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged drug vessels are set to be high on the agenda when they gather at the US presidential residence on Tuesday.

Background of Tensions

While the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation following a January American action, Petro has subsequently said he feels there is a "genuine danger" of military action against Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier remarked that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's summit follows months of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly condemned ongoing US attacks on alleged drugs boats in the regional waters, as well as the White House's immigration policies.

"His stance shifted," the US President was quoted as stating ahead of the Washington talks.

Areas of Disagreement

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to halt the flow of cocaine heading north, and has vowed to extend strikes to land targets across the region.

But, the acrimony appeared to dissipate following a "polite" phone call involving the two leaders, which a Colombian official later characterized as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".

Mediating Role

According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the conversation. "I believe in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "My hope is for our relationship to get better."

Border Security and the Guerrilla Group

Ahead of Tuesday's meeting, Colombian indicated that much of the conversation would center on shared US and Colombian worries over security in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an extensive frontier.

A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.

From the US perspective, tackling the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring safety for US companies involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts point out that the ELN has the potential to spoil investment plans by targeting foreign investors and employees, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the narcotic. In November, Petro ordered a temporary pause on information exchange with US authorities after comments from Washington.

The US has, in turn, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, encompassing the leader and members of his family.

"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a analyst. "The threat to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all investigations."

Potential Outcomes

But even with multiple areas for collaboration, the possibility for a clash remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."

But for Petro, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his preferred successor.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of criticism... If it doesn't, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could use that in his favor."